Mathematical simulation and forecast of watercourse deformations of Tom river within the limits of Tomsk city (Western Siberia)

Abstract

The mathematical model of watercourse deformations of Tom river within the limits of Tomsk city on river stretch 74,8...58,3 km from a mouth is developed and evaluated. Distribution of the intensity of vertical bottom deformations along the river, tractional and suspended discharge of the load is determined for periods of high, average and low water content. It is shown, that conserving natural and anthropogenic conditions of formation of sediment runoff of the river Tom within the limits of Tomsk city, formed in 2003-2006, definite river-bed level lowering is probable in the next decade and further forming of the island in the south part of a city. Effectiveness evaluation of channel dredging on the river Tom is carried out, and the forecast of watercourse deformations is given under different variants of anthropogenic impact on the stream