An improved pre-forecasting analysis of electrical loads of pumping station

Abstract

Relevance of research. In order to reduce energy losses, an accurate and timely forecast of the amount of consumed electricity is necessary. Accurate forecasting of electrical loads of industrial enterprises and their divisions (productions, workshops, departments etc.) allows planning of normal operating conditions, concluding contracts for the electricity supply with the electricity supply company under more favorable conditions, and improving the electricity quality, which ultimately affects the final cost of the products produced by an enterprise. So far, more than 150 forecasting methods of electrical loads have been developed. Usually, the most convenient one is selected based on the forecaster experience by creating and analyzing several forecasting models in order to identify the best. Therefore, in order to simplify the forecasting procedure, it is necessary to develop the methodology for forecasting analysis. This methodology should enable canceling forecasting algorithms that will create lower quality forecasts. The main objective is to develop the methodology for making a forecasting analysis of power consumption on the example of a pumping station of an enterprise with a continuous cycle of work to increase the efficiency of energy consumption and implementation of energy-saving measures. Objects of research: the process of forecasting electrical loads of a pumping station of the enterprise with a continuous cycle of work. Methods of research: fundamental principles of the theory of electrical engineering, statistical methods for power consumption forecasting, the method for detecting the trend of radio signals, and fractal analysis of time series. Research results. The methodology for forecasting analysis of power consumption, which makes it possible to apply the most appropriate methods to forecast the operational power consumption, is developed. For the first time, the radio signal trend detection method is applied to identify the trend of electrical loads. The variation ranges of the fractal parameters of time series of electrical loads are established depending on the variation coefficient of the time series for different periods of time. The Brown method of exponential smoothing that is used to forecast the electrical loads, in the case of identifying the smoothing constant α is in the beyond set ( 1 2 < a < ), is further improved. The regularity of changes in the fractal parameters of time series of power consumption of a pumping station with an increase in the time series duration and their field of application are explained.