Full probabilistic characteristics of power losses in the electrical power system branches

Abstract

Stable operation of the electrical power system (EPS) is one of the main issues considered in the power industry. Current levels of electricity consumption lead to the need to increase the generated capacity, repeatedly converting and complicating the original circuit. In addition to this, given the current trend towards the use of renewable energy sources (RES), more and more uncertainties are added, that are difficult to predict. Events in the EPS, and especially in the case of RES, are deterministic, i.e. random. This leads to the fact that it is difficult to fully assess the EPS stability and the possible power loss. It is also difficult to determine the amount of permissible power generated by RES, which will not lead to subsequent mode violations. The purpose of this article is to test the developed SIBD method for obtaining the full probabilistic characteristics of power losses in each branch. This method, unlike the Monte Carlo methods, does not use a random sample of initial data, but completely covers the studied functional dependence (FD). The method is used to obtain the probability distribution laws (PDLs) of power losses in transmission lines based on unmodified IEEE 30-Bus and IEEE 14-Bus systems and their examination. These laws are necessary for further determination of the optimal EPS operating modes, to solve the problem of determining the optimal RES installation, the required amount of renewable generated energy in a non-deterministic way.