Динамическая модель управления риском дефолта субъектов Российской Федерации

Abstract

The aim is to develop a risk management model of default of the Russian Federation. As a result of thiswork, the article proposed a dynamic model of default risk management of the Russian Federation. This model isbased on quality criteria and quadratic control law without feedback coefficients. The model is designed so thatits application is possible not only for entities already assigned a rating, but for those subjects of the RussianFederation, which have not yet been rated, assigned one of the leading rating agencies: Standard & Poor's, FitchRatings and Moody's. This is made possible through the provision of common indicators to calculate theprobability of default risk for all subjects of the Russian Federation. The model was applied to the subject of theTomsk region. As a result, it was found that to obtain the required probability for a given period, you need toconsistently reduce the figures: the first, third, eighth: direct debt to personal income, the share of own revenues in the budget revenues, the ratio of debt to income.