Power balance of the Siberian federal district: dynamics and prospects

Abstract

The sustainable system of energy supply in the Siberian Federal District requires first of all accurate forecast and research of the factors relating to energy consumption. The Siberian Federal District (SFD) possesses rich fuel, energy and raw material resources, also being a major supplier of resources to other regions [2]. The balance of electrical energy efficiency (EE) is a partial derivative of the composite energy balance in the SFD considered at the socio-economic level of the territory development, as well as an indicator of effectiveness concerning the implementation of the State policy in the field of energy conservation. The most significant factor affecting power consumption is the gross regional product (GRP) and capacitance of GRP. Mining and manufacturing industries are characterized by the production of electrical capacitance. Following the scenario of Russia’s social and economic development till 2030, some research of changes relating to the dynamics of the GRP has been done by modifying its structure. Also the paper offers approximate forecast concerning electric capacity by 2020 in comparable prices. So with 18% decrease, capacitance will decrease by 13%, not affecting the GRP trend. In our opinion, the policy of energy efficiency may not only include introduction of energy-saving technologies, but bring about a more accurate forecast analysis of the SFD electric balance.

Устойчивость системы электроснабжения в СФО требует, прежде всего, точного прогноза и исследования факторов, связанных с электропотреблением. Сибирский федеральный округ (СФО) располагает своей богатой топливно-энергетической и сырьевой базой. Баланс электрической энергии служит своеобразным зеркалом, отражающим социально-экономический уровень развития территории, в том числе и то, насколько эффективно реализуется политика Государства в области энергосбережения. На наш взгляд, политика энергоэффективности может включать не только введение энергосберегающих технологий, но и добиться более точного прогноза электробаланса СФО.