Application of singular spectrum analysis for extracting weakly defined trends

Abstract

The peculiarities of new method of analysis of time series - singular spectrum analysis have been considered, advantages of the method and problems connected with it application have been discussed. To increase the accuracy of trend extraction and elimination of edge effects the prediction of the series in both ends was suggested to be used. The singular spectrum analysis was applied to time series of satellite data of total ozone in latitude rings from 40 to 60° in Northern and Southern hemispheres. The trends were found. It was shown that for 1998-2005 in this ring the total ozone decreases by 0,38 %±0,01 % per year in Northern hemisphere and by 0,10 %±0,01 % per year in Southern hemisphere. It is no wonder because the most part of ozone damaging substances are produced in middle latitudes of Northern hemisphere