Migration And Welfare In The Far East

Abstract

This study analyzes the problem of negative migration flows of the Far Eastern Region as one of the main components of the welfare of the population. The aim of the study is to construct an econometric model describing the correlation between the productive and factor characteristics, which will be of practical importance for the compilation and adjustment of state programs for the development of the Far Eastern Region. The hypothesis of the study is the assertion that the following indicators influence the emigration flows: the volume of industrial production, its rise or decline and the volume of shipped goods of its own production related to manufacturing industries. Therefore, the study reveals factors influencing the high level of emigration flows from the Far Eastern Region. Multilevel factorial regression analysis is performed. The analysis shows that with the state policy unchanged in relation to the increase in living standards and welfare of the Far Eastern Region, migration to other regions of the Russian Federation will exceed 100 thousand people by 2020, which is a critical mark for the region. Thus, recommendations are given on the use of the model in drawing up federal programs to increase the welfare of the Far East.