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Title: Probabilistic-statistical models of the dynamics of climatic changes in the Altai Mountains
Authors: Ustinova, Vera Nikolaevna
Zuev, Vladimir Vladimirovich
Bondarenko, Svetlana Leonidovna
Ustinova, Irina Georgievna
Ovchinnikov, Dmitry Viktorovich
Kirdyanov, Aleksandr Viktorovich
Keywords: климатические изменения; горы; Алтай; вероятностно-статистические модели
Issue Date: 2018
Publisher: IOP Publishing
Citation: Probabilistic-statistical models of the dynamics of climatic changes in the Altai Mountains / V. N. Ustinova [et al.] // IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science. — Bristol : IOP Publishing, 2018. — Vol. 211 : Environmental Observations, Modeling and Information Systems: ENVIROMIS-2018 : International Conference and Early Career Scientists School, 5–11 July 2018, Tomsk, Russian Federation : [proceedings]. — [012025, 9 p.].
Abstract: A probabilistic-statistical parameterization of time series characterizing geological and climatic processes allows determining some regularities by an autocorrelation analysis of signals which differ in nature. The use of the autocorrelation method for analyzing data related to solar and tectonic activity and characterizing the level of stratospheric ozone (total ozone content), hydrothermal regimes (De Martonne aridity index), and wood structure (maximum density of annual rings) allows us to find regularities in time series of various natural processes. Data on the maximum density of Siberian larch trees growing in the Altai Mountains made it possible to calculate the past changes in total ozone content and the aridity index in the Altai Mountains from 1900 to 2014 based on some similarities in the series and a separation of a dendrochronological signal into its main components.
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